Solid report and performance as always. Regarding the growing cash position. I think it is an indicator of the times. As you said in a comment/reply above, there seem to be fewer attractive true high growth stocks these days. I am also in a large cash position and being patient for the next market opportunity a la Aug 5th. Cheers!
Since I started writing monthly recaps vs the S&P (me / S&P):
2019: 55% / 29%
2020: 197 / 16
2021: 30 / 27
2022: -64 / -19 (ouch!)
2023: 39 / 24
2024 YTD: 28 / 18
Since 1/1/19: 275.0% / 125.3%
Exact results and end-of-year comments can be found in the links at each December write up.
TAKE IT WITH THE USUAL GRAIN OF SALT YOU ARE TRUSTING WHAT SOME RANDOM PERSON IS SAYING ON THE INTERNET.
I post more as an accountability journal I can refer to when double checking my process and reasoning. The S&P is the guidepost I measure against. If I can't consistently beat that, I should buy an index fund and call it a day. Some people say I should track the Nasdaq since our portfolio is mostly growth companies, but I've been using the S&P so long I don't feel like redoing all the math.
That and $0.75 will get you a cup of coffee (the saying used to be $0.50, but I've bumped it up for inflation). Hope that helps, and thanks for asking.
Good observation. Not really a cash-specific strategy as much as trying to own only the companies I want at the allocation levels I'm comfortable with. ELF really screwed me on that one. The general allocation tiers I'm using are outlined here: https://thestocknovice.substack.com/p/portfolio-size-and-allocations.
Ultimately, I'd love more alternatives. I know I've said this before, but the lack of IPO's the last couple years has really limited the smaller, faster growers I prefer. I wrote about that too: https://thestocknovice.substack.com/p/hypergrowth-tohypergarp.
I'm not trying to make you read any more. Just thought I'd send those along if you're interested in seeing deeper thoughts. I'd love to hear how you're handling things. Also happy to take it offline if you're open to it.
I don’t think that IPOs are necessarily the way to go. There are some companies that languish for many years before they finally establishan S curve. I just wanna be involved in that curve, even if the company has been doing business for decades.
On that I agree. The IPO point was more smaller, faster-growing options available on the public market. Once upon a time, we had the chance to track names smaller like DDOG, NET, UPST, TMDX, etc after they came public and proved their mettle a few quarters. The lack of IPO's the last couple years gives us fewer alternatives I can beck test against our current holdings.
I know a lot of growth historically happens in the $100M to $1B revenue range for long term winners. Our only holding in the thick of that revenue range right now is TMDX. Everything else is either slightly or well past a $1B run rate, which is where many hypergrowth names start to slow. I feel my best competence is in identifying those options. In the meantime, I figure I'm learning a lot about how to manage expectations and allocations when holding larger names.
Solid report and performance as always. Regarding the growing cash position. I think it is an indicator of the times. As you said in a comment/reply above, there seem to be fewer attractive true high growth stocks these days. I am also in a large cash position and being patient for the next market opportunity a la Aug 5th. Cheers!
Thanks, and I totally agree. Just trying to play the hand we're dealt.
Nice portfolio. How you doing longer term ?
Since I started writing monthly recaps vs the S&P (me / S&P):
2019: 55% / 29%
2020: 197 / 16
2021: 30 / 27
2022: -64 / -19 (ouch!)
2023: 39 / 24
2024 YTD: 28 / 18
Since 1/1/19: 275.0% / 125.3%
Exact results and end-of-year comments can be found in the links at each December write up.
TAKE IT WITH THE USUAL GRAIN OF SALT YOU ARE TRUSTING WHAT SOME RANDOM PERSON IS SAYING ON THE INTERNET.
I post more as an accountability journal I can refer to when double checking my process and reasoning. The S&P is the guidepost I measure against. If I can't consistently beat that, I should buy an index fund and call it a day. Some people say I should track the Nasdaq since our portfolio is mostly growth companies, but I've been using the S&P so long I don't feel like redoing all the math.
That and $0.75 will get you a cup of coffee (the saying used to be $0.50, but I've bumped it up for inflation). Hope that helps, and thanks for asking.
Great work. I also got slammed in 22. Wish I booked more profits in 2020.
Lots of trims, no adds, and almost doubling your cash position. Very interesting! Thanks, Joe. Good job. As always.
Hi Jeb -
Good observation. Not really a cash-specific strategy as much as trying to own only the companies I want at the allocation levels I'm comfortable with. ELF really screwed me on that one. The general allocation tiers I'm using are outlined here: https://thestocknovice.substack.com/p/portfolio-size-and-allocations.
Ultimately, I'd love more alternatives. I know I've said this before, but the lack of IPO's the last couple years has really limited the smaller, faster growers I prefer. I wrote about that too: https://thestocknovice.substack.com/p/hypergrowth-tohypergarp.
I'm not trying to make you read any more. Just thought I'd send those along if you're interested in seeing deeper thoughts. I'd love to hear how you're handling things. Also happy to take it offline if you're open to it.
I don’t think that IPOs are necessarily the way to go. There are some companies that languish for many years before they finally establishan S curve. I just wanna be involved in that curve, even if the company has been doing business for decades.
On that I agree. The IPO point was more smaller, faster-growing options available on the public market. Once upon a time, we had the chance to track names smaller like DDOG, NET, UPST, TMDX, etc after they came public and proved their mettle a few quarters. The lack of IPO's the last couple years gives us fewer alternatives I can beck test against our current holdings.
I know a lot of growth historically happens in the $100M to $1B revenue range for long term winners. Our only holding in the thick of that revenue range right now is TMDX. Everything else is either slightly or well past a $1B run rate, which is where many hypergrowth names start to slow. I feel my best competence is in identifying those options. In the meantime, I figure I'm learning a lot about how to manage expectations and allocations when holding larger names.