Hey StockNovice. I have read your write-ups since you've been doing them and you are great! Thanks for everything you share. I have learned so much.
As I read this month's write-up I don't recall ever seeing you hold this much cash (last month was high too). Nor I have I seen you hold cash for this long. It seems atypical and that makes me curious and I have lots of questions but I'll try to make it one or two....
I guess I am trying to square the statement "these are often the best times to buy" with the cash allocation I've never seen before. I guess it caught me a little off guard. Has "your style" has changed in light of how the past few years have unfolded?
I am 1000% genuinely curious and trying to get better myself. I have generally been more conservative than you and I've always tried to learn how to be more aggressive in a "smart way" by reading your thoughts. Thanks for anything you are willing to share and have a great weekend!
This might help clarify my thinking as well. We always have to adjust when the numbers and/or narratives for our companies change. The current environment is obviously affecting one or both for almost every company in every sector right now. I'm trying to keep my allocations more in line with the categories outlined in this post.
Thanks for sharing this again. I've read it several times in the past, but 0 times in the past year. The tiers make it easier to ensure our allocations stay where they should with certain companies. I think I am going to print it out and hang it on my wall. I've got a thick skull and a daily reminder wouldn't hurt 😁
Great question. I can't say it's a change in overall style as much as trying to walk the selective/aggressive line in this market. I'm trying to ask myself 1) is this a company I want to own right now and 2) how much of it would I be comfortable holding? One adjustment I've made recently is noticing the market putting greater emphasis on companies being self-funding with cash flows and possible profits right now. I've been doing that as well, which has led to the larger positions in names like DDOG, CRWD, and ZS. That also means companies like MNDY or S which might have gotten more leeway in the past are getting more scrutiny now. I believe the market is doing something similar with NET as well. When I decided to exit my 9% or so MNDY position, I took a hard look at the holdings that were left but decided I didn't want to push any of them significantly higher. I haven't been in a rush to reallocate recent ZS trims either. When that happens I tend to leave what's left in cash until a company tells me it deserves it. I faced something similar in November when I sold UPST before getting most of it back in after seeing the December earnings reports we had left. I find myself in that type of window now.
I currently own the 8 firms I want at my current comfort level for each. In my opinion, each company in the back half of our portfolio or watch list exited last quarter with questions to answer (which I hope I expressed adequately in recent recaps). I'm willing to wait for signs of those questions being answered before pushing those respective allocations too much higher. Being honest, pushing an allocation past my conviction in the underlying execution was a mistake I made a few months ago with MNDY. I'd rather not make it again.
I've always tried to operate under the belief companies need to "earn" our investing dollars through business execution. Unfortunately, many execution trends have tightened for companies market-wide in recent months (just take a look at stalwarts like Target or Microsoft). I view this upcoming quarter as a big one as far as providing clarity on which trends will show resilience in the second half. If our smaller allocations show their trends are intact, I'm almost certain to push them higher. But I want to see it first. Until then, I'm willing to wait for the additional information. What I'll be looking for is something I'll outline in the pre-earnings posts I'll make later this month.
I hope that makes sense and feel free to ask any follow up questions.
This makes a lot of sense. I really appreciate you taking the time to explain the nuances in your thinking. I really like your framework because it is so flexible/adaptable while still being rooted in discipline (Numbers + Narrative). With this as the base to your decision making, I can see how "easy" it is to make the decisions you have. Thanks again for the response and everything you have done. I have lots to think about watching fireworks the next couple of days.
Note: I don't want to be a nuisance, but this probably isn't the last time I am going to ask to pick your brain. Please forgive me in advance 😃
Hey StockNovice. I have read your write-ups since you've been doing them and you are great! Thanks for everything you share. I have learned so much.
As I read this month's write-up I don't recall ever seeing you hold this much cash (last month was high too). Nor I have I seen you hold cash for this long. It seems atypical and that makes me curious and I have lots of questions but I'll try to make it one or two....
I guess I am trying to square the statement "these are often the best times to buy" with the cash allocation I've never seen before. I guess it caught me a little off guard. Has "your style" has changed in light of how the past few years have unfolded?
I am 1000% genuinely curious and trying to get better myself. I have generally been more conservative than you and I've always tried to learn how to be more aggressive in a "smart way" by reading your thoughts. Thanks for anything you are willing to share and have a great weekend!
This might help clarify my thinking as well. We always have to adjust when the numbers and/or narratives for our companies change. The current environment is obviously affecting one or both for almost every company in every sector right now. I'm trying to keep my allocations more in line with the categories outlined in this post.
https://thestocknovice.substack.com/p/portfolio-size-and-allocations
Thanks for sharing this again. I've read it several times in the past, but 0 times in the past year. The tiers make it easier to ensure our allocations stay where they should with certain companies. I think I am going to print it out and hang it on my wall. I've got a thick skull and a daily reminder wouldn't hurt 😁
Hi, Chris.
Great question. I can't say it's a change in overall style as much as trying to walk the selective/aggressive line in this market. I'm trying to ask myself 1) is this a company I want to own right now and 2) how much of it would I be comfortable holding? One adjustment I've made recently is noticing the market putting greater emphasis on companies being self-funding with cash flows and possible profits right now. I've been doing that as well, which has led to the larger positions in names like DDOG, CRWD, and ZS. That also means companies like MNDY or S which might have gotten more leeway in the past are getting more scrutiny now. I believe the market is doing something similar with NET as well. When I decided to exit my 9% or so MNDY position, I took a hard look at the holdings that were left but decided I didn't want to push any of them significantly higher. I haven't been in a rush to reallocate recent ZS trims either. When that happens I tend to leave what's left in cash until a company tells me it deserves it. I faced something similar in November when I sold UPST before getting most of it back in after seeing the December earnings reports we had left. I find myself in that type of window now.
I currently own the 8 firms I want at my current comfort level for each. In my opinion, each company in the back half of our portfolio or watch list exited last quarter with questions to answer (which I hope I expressed adequately in recent recaps). I'm willing to wait for signs of those questions being answered before pushing those respective allocations too much higher. Being honest, pushing an allocation past my conviction in the underlying execution was a mistake I made a few months ago with MNDY. I'd rather not make it again.
I've always tried to operate under the belief companies need to "earn" our investing dollars through business execution. Unfortunately, many execution trends have tightened for companies market-wide in recent months (just take a look at stalwarts like Target or Microsoft). I view this upcoming quarter as a big one as far as providing clarity on which trends will show resilience in the second half. If our smaller allocations show their trends are intact, I'm almost certain to push them higher. But I want to see it first. Until then, I'm willing to wait for the additional information. What I'll be looking for is something I'll outline in the pre-earnings posts I'll make later this month.
I hope that makes sense and feel free to ask any follow up questions.
This makes a lot of sense. I really appreciate you taking the time to explain the nuances in your thinking. I really like your framework because it is so flexible/adaptable while still being rooted in discipline (Numbers + Narrative). With this as the base to your decision making, I can see how "easy" it is to make the decisions you have. Thanks again for the response and everything you have done. I have lots to think about watching fireworks the next couple of days.
Note: I don't want to be a nuisance, but this probably isn't the last time I am going to ask to pick your brain. Please forgive me in advance 😃
Thanks for sharing your thoughts, have a good 4th of July (I assume you're in the US, but not sure 🤔). 💚 🥃
I am, and thank you.