Hi Stock Novice. I know AYX is one of your largest holdings, it is my largest as well but only at 9% of my portfolio as mine is less concentrated. They reported earnings yesterday as I am sure you saw, and was curious what you were forecasting for rev? I used the same kind of method as you described above and therefore set the bar at a beat of roughly 6% to put revenue at ~$115M and growth just over 50% YoY. They had beat earnings by greater than 6% in each report since 2017 so I felt I was setting the bar low in light of COVID. I was pretty surprised to see revenue come in under $110M and growth to hit the brakes from 75% to 43%. I guess I misjudged the virus' effect on the co. Anyway, I am sure you will write your thoughts in your May review but just figured I would comment here as I saw you mention you hope people comment and share thoughts. I have no intentions of selling as I still believe in the long-term thesis, and would be happy to add if we see the $80's again but I am eager to get your thoughts on the Q! Thanks, Rex
How did you got your estimate of $152-155? Using avg of previous beats?
Hi Stock Novice. I know AYX is one of your largest holdings, it is my largest as well but only at 9% of my portfolio as mine is less concentrated. They reported earnings yesterday as I am sure you saw, and was curious what you were forecasting for rev? I used the same kind of method as you described above and therefore set the bar at a beat of roughly 6% to put revenue at ~$115M and growth just over 50% YoY. They had beat earnings by greater than 6% in each report since 2017 so I felt I was setting the bar low in light of COVID. I was pretty surprised to see revenue come in under $110M and growth to hit the brakes from 75% to 43%. I guess I misjudged the virus' effect on the co. Anyway, I am sure you will write your thoughts in your May review but just figured I would comment here as I saw you mention you hope people comment and share thoughts. I have no intentions of selling as I still believe in the long-term thesis, and would be happy to add if we see the $80's again but I am eager to get your thoughts on the Q! Thanks, Rex