How much money have you burned or earned since 2018? I think your performance would have been enormously (!) better if you would have just hold your holdings of August 2018.
A CAGR of 17.76% would have been nice enough, isnt it?
I haven't, mostly because I'm not entirely comfortable with the business model. It's subject to consumer fickleness, and I'm not exactly sure how to track the deal with SHOP. If I were to get into something in that space, I'd probably lean toward MELI even though it has a fintech component to it.
In general I do believe it's time to get more of our cash back into play but will likely wait until after all our earnings reports are in to reassess. FWIW, I did start a 1% position in AEHR with some May 19 $25 and $30 puts that could push it into the 4-5% range depending where we are in a couple weeks.
Sorry I don't have more, but I hope that helps at least a little.
Hi Stocknovice, I am wondering if you have taken a look at GLBE? and if you had could you share, briefly, the main reasons why GLBE has not made it into your portfolio (or even onto your watchlist), please? Thank you.
(I have taken a look at GLBE - complied my "stocknoice" excel sheet - and read some of the posts on Saul's board - Saul is focused on the postive EBITDA and the YoY comparisons that look good - but the QoQ comparisions are not so good in my view e.g. they are guiding for -18,5% revenue growth in Q1, and even accounting for seasonality that is a big decrease down from -7,7% QoQ growth in Q1 22; and on top of that I see that they have often even failed to meet their guidance. On the other hand the Conf Call was very positive - the management kept saying how confident they are that they will grow at rates that are well above the growth rate of e-commerce industry, and that their guidance is "not ambitious" etc.. Any brief thoughts that you could share would be appreciated. Thank you.
That was a great post over at Saul on your thread report there. At the end of the day, when a CEO loses our trust, it is game over for that company. I also thought that parading AI in the midst of massive hype ( even I knew as early as 2020 that AI would help NET, that was no real news), in the midst of Q4 sought to superficially create enthusiasm and deflect from performance issues. And Q3 2022 was very poor for NET as well. Anyway, onward and upward we go.
Always like your monthly reports and it is one of the first that I read every month end. Two comments: I think TTD is quite overvalued right now given its forward growth rate for the rest of 2023. And I like your current cash allocation because it will come in handy to buy at good prices in Q2 and Q3. Cheers!
Thank you for the post. I enjoyed reading it very much. I do have some thoughts I’d like to share about CLOUDFLARE’s quarter. 1) The quarter is bad. No other ways to describe it. 2) It is mostly due to macro impact. The bank failures started in March that further tightened credit, and greatly poisoned business sentiment. They typically have half of the deals closed in the last month of Q but this time the deals were pushed to the last two weeks of March and some of them were pushed out of the Q. Sales cycles were extended by 27% on average and expansion deal cycles were by 50%. Essentially the bank failure came fast and ferocious and froze a good chunk of the market. 3) I feel that no one outside banking industry could foresee the bank failures and the impact. And Prince couldn’t when he was reporting Q4 earning. 4) If this is true, we would see it in other company reports in the next few weeks. We didn’t see such severe impact on Microsoft and Google reports probably because they have more diversified product/revenue streams and have more diversified customer base. 5) I feel very disappointed about the unproductive sales reps because Prince often bragged about that people were eager to join CLOUDFLARE and that they had extremely high selectivity in hiring. And I would assume the low productivity most likely won’t be isolated just in the sales team. Just some thoughts. I could be wrong.
Great many thanks for this informative update. I went down -6.2% in April with a completely different port....YTD I am now trailing QQQ as I fell to 17.5% from nearly 30% a week ago! And I did not even have NET but AYX lost nearly as much despite what I thought was a much better report. I will phase AYX out for now though I think they will perform better than people expect throughout the rest of 2023.
Random thoughts:
While long a Prince doubter, I was still taken aback by his comments about the workers. ENPH: it is crazy to me that ENPH lost more than NET, it is bonkers when you look at ROE and ROA and profits not to mention that the entire ENPH business is somewhat visible to the outsider. Who really knows what NET is actually doing with what. Finally Fooling has found a way to peek under the hood but even so...there is no clarity what revenue line is doing what.
I sold my TMDX starter for a small profit but remains on short list. I opened a MASI starter which I will grow to very small position before earnings and double it if I like the earnings. I am considering a NARI starter before their earnings.
Anyway, sorry for some disjointed remarks: busy day :)
How much money have you burned or earned since 2018? I think your performance would have been enormously (!) better if you would have just hold your holdings of August 2018.
A CAGR of 17.76% would have been nice enough, isnt it?
https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-portfolio?s=y&timePeriod=2&startYear=2018&firstMonth=8&endYear=2023&lastMonth=4&calendarAligned=true&includeYTD=false&initialAmount=10000&annualOperation=0&annualAdjustment=0&inflationAdjusted=true&annualPercentage=0.0&frequency=4&rebalanceType=0&absoluteDeviation=5.0&relativeDeviation=25.0&leverageType=0&leverageRatio=0.0&debtAmount=0&debtInterest=0.0&maintenanceMargin=25.0&leveragedBenchmark=false&reinvestDividends=true&showYield=false&showFactors=false&factorModel=3&portfolioNames=false&portfolioName1=Portfolio+1&portfolioName2=Portfolio+2&portfolioName3=Portfolio+3&symbol1=TWLO&allocation1_1=6.76&symbol2=MDB&allocation2_1=6.66&symbol3=AYX&allocation3_1=6.66&symbol4=TTD&allocation4_1=6.66&symbol5=ZS&allocation5_1=6.66&symbol6=OKTA&allocation6_1=6.66&symbol7=NEWR&allocation7_1=6.66&symbol8=NTNX&allocation8_1=6.66&symbol9=PAYC&allocation9_1=6.66&symbol10=WIX&allocation10_1=6.66&symbol11=SHOP&allocation11_1=6.66&symbol12=ILMN&allocation12_1=6.66&symbol13=BIP&allocation13_1=6.66&symbol14=VCEL&allocation14_1=6.66&symbol15=SQ&allocation15_1=6.66
I haven't, mostly because I'm not entirely comfortable with the business model. It's subject to consumer fickleness, and I'm not exactly sure how to track the deal with SHOP. If I were to get into something in that space, I'd probably lean toward MELI even though it has a fintech component to it.
In general I do believe it's time to get more of our cash back into play but will likely wait until after all our earnings reports are in to reassess. FWIW, I did start a 1% position in AEHR with some May 19 $25 and $30 puts that could push it into the 4-5% range depending where we are in a couple weeks.
Sorry I don't have more, but I hope that helps at least a little.
Hi Stocknovice, I am wondering if you have taken a look at GLBE? and if you had could you share, briefly, the main reasons why GLBE has not made it into your portfolio (or even onto your watchlist), please? Thank you.
(I have taken a look at GLBE - complied my "stocknoice" excel sheet - and read some of the posts on Saul's board - Saul is focused on the postive EBITDA and the YoY comparisons that look good - but the QoQ comparisions are not so good in my view e.g. they are guiding for -18,5% revenue growth in Q1, and even accounting for seasonality that is a big decrease down from -7,7% QoQ growth in Q1 22; and on top of that I see that they have often even failed to meet their guidance. On the other hand the Conf Call was very positive - the management kept saying how confident they are that they will grow at rates that are well above the growth rate of e-commerce industry, and that their guidance is "not ambitious" etc.. Any brief thoughts that you could share would be appreciated. Thank you.
So I am back in TMDX and this time it is no longer a starter but a "very small" position (roughly 6%).
That was a great post over at Saul on your thread report there. At the end of the day, when a CEO loses our trust, it is game over for that company. I also thought that parading AI in the midst of massive hype ( even I knew as early as 2020 that AI would help NET, that was no real news), in the midst of Q4 sought to superficially create enthusiasm and deflect from performance issues. And Q3 2022 was very poor for NET as well. Anyway, onward and upward we go.
Always like your monthly reports and it is one of the first that I read every month end. Two comments: I think TTD is quite overvalued right now given its forward growth rate for the rest of 2023. And I like your current cash allocation because it will come in handy to buy at good prices in Q2 and Q3. Cheers!
Thank you for the post. I enjoyed reading it very much. I do have some thoughts I’d like to share about CLOUDFLARE’s quarter. 1) The quarter is bad. No other ways to describe it. 2) It is mostly due to macro impact. The bank failures started in March that further tightened credit, and greatly poisoned business sentiment. They typically have half of the deals closed in the last month of Q but this time the deals were pushed to the last two weeks of March and some of them were pushed out of the Q. Sales cycles were extended by 27% on average and expansion deal cycles were by 50%. Essentially the bank failure came fast and ferocious and froze a good chunk of the market. 3) I feel that no one outside banking industry could foresee the bank failures and the impact. And Prince couldn’t when he was reporting Q4 earning. 4) If this is true, we would see it in other company reports in the next few weeks. We didn’t see such severe impact on Microsoft and Google reports probably because they have more diversified product/revenue streams and have more diversified customer base. 5) I feel very disappointed about the unproductive sales reps because Prince often bragged about that people were eager to join CLOUDFLARE and that they had extremely high selectivity in hiring. And I would assume the low productivity most likely won’t be isolated just in the sales team. Just some thoughts. I could be wrong.
Thank you for the write up.
Great many thanks for this informative update. I went down -6.2% in April with a completely different port....YTD I am now trailing QQQ as I fell to 17.5% from nearly 30% a week ago! And I did not even have NET but AYX lost nearly as much despite what I thought was a much better report. I will phase AYX out for now though I think they will perform better than people expect throughout the rest of 2023.
Random thoughts:
While long a Prince doubter, I was still taken aback by his comments about the workers. ENPH: it is crazy to me that ENPH lost more than NET, it is bonkers when you look at ROE and ROA and profits not to mention that the entire ENPH business is somewhat visible to the outsider. Who really knows what NET is actually doing with what. Finally Fooling has found a way to peek under the hood but even so...there is no clarity what revenue line is doing what.
I sold my TMDX starter for a small profit but remains on short list. I opened a MASI starter which I will grow to very small position before earnings and double it if I like the earnings. I am considering a NARI starter before their earnings.
Anyway, sorry for some disjointed remarks: busy day :)