How much money have you burned or earned since 2018? I think your performance would have been enormously (!) better if you would have just hold your holdings of August 2018.
A CAGR of 17.76% would have been nice enough, isnt it?
Good question. Being honest I've never really figured out CAGR. I didn't start this style until late 2018 and began tracking religiously on 1/1/19. As of a couple days ago, I have our portfolio up 140.2% vs 67.2% for the S&P (just listed price w/o dividends). I poked around a couple CAGR calculators and that looks like 21.7% or so.
Also, your backtest looks balanced for holdings? Our portfolio definitely wasn't. Anyway, I used to use the old Motley Fool tracker before they discontinued it in 2018. That tracker had me ahead of the S&P by 2% a year or so from 2000-2018. Either way, I'm happy with our returns since with the side benefit of feeling much more knowledgable about how to manage our portfolio in a way that works for us.
sure it was a quick dirty test and mostly simply sticking to the holdings is the way to go. you hop around, but better than Saul. I think you also had Nvidia. You would be a lucky one today ;)
I haven't, mostly because I'm not entirely comfortable with the business model. It's subject to consumer fickleness, and I'm not exactly sure how to track the deal with SHOP. If I were to get into something in that space, I'd probably lean toward MELI even though it has a fintech component to it.
In general I do believe it's time to get more of our cash back into play but will likely wait until after all our earnings reports are in to reassess. FWIW, I did start a 1% position in AEHR with some May 19 $25 and $30 puts that could push it into the 4-5% range depending where we are in a couple weeks.
Sorry I don't have more, but I hope that helps at least a little.
Thank you. I see some divergence between the investors that I look up to – and I’m trying to resolve why each is arriving at their respective conclusions. Thank you for sharing your reasons for not considering GLBE. I agree it is difficult to track the SHOP deal, in particular the terms of the deal (Ant alluded to this on Saul’s Board), but for me I felt that while the deal is certainly something to watch closely, it is not something that would prevent me from taking a starter position and continuing to build out the position as more visibility on the consequences of the deal become apparent. Global-E is still a very small company compared to Shopify. It is still in the early stages of its growth. It has a minor percentage of Shopify’s universe of merchants as clients; and not all of the integrations with Shopify have even been made available at this point. On top of that I find the management on the conf calls to be very bullish. I have not taken a position in GLBE yet – I may wait until next ER and see how that goes before deciding. I agree that MELI is a strong company too –they had a great quarter - I need to take a closer look at MELI. Also AHER – I have not looked at, but its next on my list of Companies to study. Thank you again for your input, I really appreciate it.
Hi Stocknovice, I am wondering if you have taken a look at GLBE? and if you had could you share, briefly, the main reasons why GLBE has not made it into your portfolio (or even onto your watchlist), please? Thank you.
(I have taken a look at GLBE - complied my "stocknoice" excel sheet - and read some of the posts on Saul's board - Saul is focused on the postive EBITDA and the YoY comparisons that look good - but the QoQ comparisions are not so good in my view e.g. they are guiding for -18,5% revenue growth in Q1, and even accounting for seasonality that is a big decrease down from -7,7% QoQ growth in Q1 22; and on top of that I see that they have often even failed to meet their guidance. On the other hand the Conf Call was very positive - the management kept saying how confident they are that they will grow at rates that are well above the growth rate of e-commerce industry, and that their guidance is "not ambitious" etc.. Any brief thoughts that you could share would be appreciated. Thank you.
Hard not to like those numbers. Listening to the call now. Sounds like everything is right on track, but this is one I'll wait for the transcript to be sure.
That was a great post over at Saul on your thread report there. At the end of the day, when a CEO loses our trust, it is game over for that company. I also thought that parading AI in the midst of massive hype ( even I knew as early as 2020 that AI would help NET, that was no real news), in the midst of Q4 sought to superficially create enthusiasm and deflect from performance issues. And Q3 2022 was very poor for NET as well. Anyway, onward and upward we go.
Always like your monthly reports and it is one of the first that I read every month end. Two comments: I think TTD is quite overvalued right now given its forward growth rate for the rest of 2023. And I like your current cash allocation because it will come in handy to buy at good prices in Q2 and Q3. Cheers!
Fair on TTD, though most of its current allocation is simply letting shares run that are up 43% YTD. One thing I'm realizing is TTD could really benefit in calendar 2024 (as opposed to your 2023) from a possible recovery of the ad market along with what will likely be HUGE political spend in the US elections. Against what will be easier comps created by this cycle, TTD could end up with a stretch of being a rare headline growth accelerator at that size and scale. The YTD suggests it's already getting some credit for that, but it's credit TTD likely deserves given the obvious market share it is grabbing.
Thank you for the post. I enjoyed reading it very much. I do have some thoughts I’d like to share about CLOUDFLARE’s quarter. 1) The quarter is bad. No other ways to describe it. 2) It is mostly due to macro impact. The bank failures started in March that further tightened credit, and greatly poisoned business sentiment. They typically have half of the deals closed in the last month of Q but this time the deals were pushed to the last two weeks of March and some of them were pushed out of the Q. Sales cycles were extended by 27% on average and expansion deal cycles were by 50%. Essentially the bank failure came fast and ferocious and froze a good chunk of the market. 3) I feel that no one outside banking industry could foresee the bank failures and the impact. And Prince couldn’t when he was reporting Q4 earning. 4) If this is true, we would see it in other company reports in the next few weeks. We didn’t see such severe impact on Microsoft and Google reports probably because they have more diversified product/revenue streams and have more diversified customer base. 5) I feel very disappointed about the unproductive sales reps because Prince often bragged about that people were eager to join CLOUDFLARE and that they had extremely high selectivity in hiring. And I would assume the low productivity most likely won’t be isolated just in the sales team. Just some thoughts. I could be wrong.
All excellent thoughts especially #5. Cloudflare has always touted its high hiring standards and quality of staff it brings on board. In my opinion, singling out the sales team without tying it back to C-suite responsibility is poor leadership in every way.
NET has always been given a higher multiple than most peers in part due to Prince's messaging and credibility. As a shareholder, that credibility and messaging just took a huge hit. Yes, others businesses are struggling but NET now joins SNOW as the only two forced to restate guides down. I guess we'll see whether that's company specific or part of a larger trend. I hope it's the former.
Great many thanks for this informative update. I went down -6.2% in April with a completely different port....YTD I am now trailing QQQ as I fell to 17.5% from nearly 30% a week ago! And I did not even have NET but AYX lost nearly as much despite what I thought was a much better report. I will phase AYX out for now though I think they will perform better than people expect throughout the rest of 2023.
Random thoughts:
While long a Prince doubter, I was still taken aback by his comments about the workers. ENPH: it is crazy to me that ENPH lost more than NET, it is bonkers when you look at ROE and ROA and profits not to mention that the entire ENPH business is somewhat visible to the outsider. Who really knows what NET is actually doing with what. Finally Fooling has found a way to peek under the hood but even so...there is no clarity what revenue line is doing what.
I sold my TMDX starter for a small profit but remains on short list. I opened a MASI starter which I will grow to very small position before earnings and double it if I like the earnings. I am considering a NARI starter before their earnings.
Anyway, sorry for some disjointed remarks: busy day :)
How much money have you burned or earned since 2018? I think your performance would have been enormously (!) better if you would have just hold your holdings of August 2018.
A CAGR of 17.76% would have been nice enough, isnt it?
https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-portfolio?s=y&timePeriod=2&startYear=2018&firstMonth=8&endYear=2023&lastMonth=4&calendarAligned=true&includeYTD=false&initialAmount=10000&annualOperation=0&annualAdjustment=0&inflationAdjusted=true&annualPercentage=0.0&frequency=4&rebalanceType=0&absoluteDeviation=5.0&relativeDeviation=25.0&leverageType=0&leverageRatio=0.0&debtAmount=0&debtInterest=0.0&maintenanceMargin=25.0&leveragedBenchmark=false&reinvestDividends=true&showYield=false&showFactors=false&factorModel=3&portfolioNames=false&portfolioName1=Portfolio+1&portfolioName2=Portfolio+2&portfolioName3=Portfolio+3&symbol1=TWLO&allocation1_1=6.76&symbol2=MDB&allocation2_1=6.66&symbol3=AYX&allocation3_1=6.66&symbol4=TTD&allocation4_1=6.66&symbol5=ZS&allocation5_1=6.66&symbol6=OKTA&allocation6_1=6.66&symbol7=NEWR&allocation7_1=6.66&symbol8=NTNX&allocation8_1=6.66&symbol9=PAYC&allocation9_1=6.66&symbol10=WIX&allocation10_1=6.66&symbol11=SHOP&allocation11_1=6.66&symbol12=ILMN&allocation12_1=6.66&symbol13=BIP&allocation13_1=6.66&symbol14=VCEL&allocation14_1=6.66&symbol15=SQ&allocation15_1=6.66
Good question. Being honest I've never really figured out CAGR. I didn't start this style until late 2018 and began tracking religiously on 1/1/19. As of a couple days ago, I have our portfolio up 140.2% vs 67.2% for the S&P (just listed price w/o dividends). I poked around a couple CAGR calculators and that looks like 21.7% or so.
Also, your backtest looks balanced for holdings? Our portfolio definitely wasn't. Anyway, I used to use the old Motley Fool tracker before they discontinued it in 2018. That tracker had me ahead of the S&P by 2% a year or so from 2000-2018. Either way, I'm happy with our returns since with the side benefit of feeling much more knowledgable about how to manage our portfolio in a way that works for us.
I hope that answers your question.
sure it was a quick dirty test and mostly simply sticking to the holdings is the way to go. you hop around, but better than Saul. I think you also had Nvidia. You would be a lucky one today ;)
I haven't, mostly because I'm not entirely comfortable with the business model. It's subject to consumer fickleness, and I'm not exactly sure how to track the deal with SHOP. If I were to get into something in that space, I'd probably lean toward MELI even though it has a fintech component to it.
In general I do believe it's time to get more of our cash back into play but will likely wait until after all our earnings reports are in to reassess. FWIW, I did start a 1% position in AEHR with some May 19 $25 and $30 puts that could push it into the 4-5% range depending where we are in a couple weeks.
Sorry I don't have more, but I hope that helps at least a little.
Thank you. I see some divergence between the investors that I look up to – and I’m trying to resolve why each is arriving at their respective conclusions. Thank you for sharing your reasons for not considering GLBE. I agree it is difficult to track the SHOP deal, in particular the terms of the deal (Ant alluded to this on Saul’s Board), but for me I felt that while the deal is certainly something to watch closely, it is not something that would prevent me from taking a starter position and continuing to build out the position as more visibility on the consequences of the deal become apparent. Global-E is still a very small company compared to Shopify. It is still in the early stages of its growth. It has a minor percentage of Shopify’s universe of merchants as clients; and not all of the integrations with Shopify have even been made available at this point. On top of that I find the management on the conf calls to be very bullish. I have not taken a position in GLBE yet – I may wait until next ER and see how that goes before deciding. I agree that MELI is a strong company too –they had a great quarter - I need to take a closer look at MELI. Also AHER – I have not looked at, but its next on my list of Companies to study. Thank you again for your input, I really appreciate it.
Hi Stocknovice, I am wondering if you have taken a look at GLBE? and if you had could you share, briefly, the main reasons why GLBE has not made it into your portfolio (or even onto your watchlist), please? Thank you.
(I have taken a look at GLBE - complied my "stocknoice" excel sheet - and read some of the posts on Saul's board - Saul is focused on the postive EBITDA and the YoY comparisons that look good - but the QoQ comparisions are not so good in my view e.g. they are guiding for -18,5% revenue growth in Q1, and even accounting for seasonality that is a big decrease down from -7,7% QoQ growth in Q1 22; and on top of that I see that they have often even failed to meet their guidance. On the other hand the Conf Call was very positive - the management kept saying how confident they are that they will grow at rates that are well above the growth rate of e-commerce industry, and that their guidance is "not ambitious" etc.. Any brief thoughts that you could share would be appreciated. Thank you.
So I am back in TMDX and this time it is no longer a starter but a "very small" position (roughly 6%).
Hard not to like those numbers. Listening to the call now. Sounds like everything is right on track, but this is one I'll wait for the transcript to be sure.
That was a great post over at Saul on your thread report there. At the end of the day, when a CEO loses our trust, it is game over for that company. I also thought that parading AI in the midst of massive hype ( even I knew as early as 2020 that AI would help NET, that was no real news), in the midst of Q4 sought to superficially create enthusiasm and deflect from performance issues. And Q3 2022 was very poor for NET as well. Anyway, onward and upward we go.
Always like your monthly reports and it is one of the first that I read every month end. Two comments: I think TTD is quite overvalued right now given its forward growth rate for the rest of 2023. And I like your current cash allocation because it will come in handy to buy at good prices in Q2 and Q3. Cheers!
I agree. Unfortunately, I see little reasonable upside on TTD at the moment.
Fair on TTD, though most of its current allocation is simply letting shares run that are up 43% YTD. One thing I'm realizing is TTD could really benefit in calendar 2024 (as opposed to your 2023) from a possible recovery of the ad market along with what will likely be HUGE political spend in the US elections. Against what will be easier comps created by this cycle, TTD could end up with a stretch of being a rare headline growth accelerator at that size and scale. The YTD suggests it's already getting some credit for that, but it's credit TTD likely deserves given the obvious market share it is grabbing.
Good thoughts on TTD. However it still has to get through a recession later this year. That will hurt their H2 results.
In my opinion, TTD would be a great buy for 2024 if the buy is executed at a good price later this year.
Could not agree more...TTD could bottom this year.
Thank you for the post. I enjoyed reading it very much. I do have some thoughts I’d like to share about CLOUDFLARE’s quarter. 1) The quarter is bad. No other ways to describe it. 2) It is mostly due to macro impact. The bank failures started in March that further tightened credit, and greatly poisoned business sentiment. They typically have half of the deals closed in the last month of Q but this time the deals were pushed to the last two weeks of March and some of them were pushed out of the Q. Sales cycles were extended by 27% on average and expansion deal cycles were by 50%. Essentially the bank failure came fast and ferocious and froze a good chunk of the market. 3) I feel that no one outside banking industry could foresee the bank failures and the impact. And Prince couldn’t when he was reporting Q4 earning. 4) If this is true, we would see it in other company reports in the next few weeks. We didn’t see such severe impact on Microsoft and Google reports probably because they have more diversified product/revenue streams and have more diversified customer base. 5) I feel very disappointed about the unproductive sales reps because Prince often bragged about that people were eager to join CLOUDFLARE and that they had extremely high selectivity in hiring. And I would assume the low productivity most likely won’t be isolated just in the sales team. Just some thoughts. I could be wrong.
Thanks, Larry.
All excellent thoughts especially #5. Cloudflare has always touted its high hiring standards and quality of staff it brings on board. In my opinion, singling out the sales team without tying it back to C-suite responsibility is poor leadership in every way.
NET has always been given a higher multiple than most peers in part due to Prince's messaging and credibility. As a shareholder, that credibility and messaging just took a huge hit. Yes, others businesses are struggling but NET now joins SNOW as the only two forced to restate guides down. I guess we'll see whether that's company specific or part of a larger trend. I hope it's the former.
Thank you for the write up.
Great many thanks for this informative update. I went down -6.2% in April with a completely different port....YTD I am now trailing QQQ as I fell to 17.5% from nearly 30% a week ago! And I did not even have NET but AYX lost nearly as much despite what I thought was a much better report. I will phase AYX out for now though I think they will perform better than people expect throughout the rest of 2023.
Random thoughts:
While long a Prince doubter, I was still taken aback by his comments about the workers. ENPH: it is crazy to me that ENPH lost more than NET, it is bonkers when you look at ROE and ROA and profits not to mention that the entire ENPH business is somewhat visible to the outsider. Who really knows what NET is actually doing with what. Finally Fooling has found a way to peek under the hood but even so...there is no clarity what revenue line is doing what.
I sold my TMDX starter for a small profit but remains on short list. I opened a MASI starter which I will grow to very small position before earnings and double it if I like the earnings. I am considering a NARI starter before their earnings.
Anyway, sorry for some disjointed remarks: busy day :)