I have 1.5% taxable I'll hold and added back another 1.5% non-taxable between $237-$245. Not sure on the second lot but like it better than cash for now.
I follow your writings and portfolio updates on the MF and on Sauls board and appreciate all your insights in investing knowledge....Thank you for putting yourself out there and sharing you investing life with the public. I'm curious what your thoughts are with Bill.com and thier recent earnings. I'm going to initiate a position early this week and faily excited on their growth prospects.
20Q2 20Q3 20Q4 21Q1 21Q2 21Q3 21Q4 22Q1
Rev 39.1 41.2 42.1 46.2 54 59.7 78.3 116.4*
RevQoQ%. 5.4 2.2 9.7 16.9 10.6 31.2 48.7*
GM%Nongaap 78 78 78. 77 77 77 80 83*
SubscriptionRev YoY% 33 32 32 43*
TransactionRev YoY% 98 112 204 319*
*Includes the Divvy and Invoice2go acquisitions*
DBNRR is 124% up from 121% in 21Q4
They are guiding revenue for 131M (high end) for 22Q2 and usually beats guidance greater that 10% meaning a projected revenue of 144.1M+, meaning a 23.8% QoQ and 167% YoY....
Not familiar enough with them to have an opinion. They are on my list to take a look at but haven't done it yet. Two questions pop into my head:
1) What is the organic growth rate w/o acquisitions? Do you know?
2) Do they have any exposure to retail or hospitality suppliers that might affect revenue the next couple quarters? The supply chain thing seems to be creeping in a lot of places. Not sure if it applies here or not.
Bill.com seems to lay out thier quarterly earning with organic growth rates spelled out..
"Bill.com completed the acquisition of Invoice2go, a leading mobile-first accounts receivable (AR) software provider, on September 1, 2021. Bill.com’s reported financial results for the first quarter fiscal 2022 include the results of Invoice2go from that date, while prior periods presented do not. Organic results exclude the impact of Invoice2go and recently-acquired Divvy.”
-“Our organic core revenue growth increased 78% year-over-year in the first quarter,(and up from 73% previous quarter), and our spend management solution continued its robust growth trajectory,” said John Rettig, Bill.com CFO. “Our performance was driven by strong adoption and usage of our solutions and solid execution across our team. We are in a strong position to extend our leadership in serving the SMB market.”
While I did not really see anything pertaining to supply chain concept, Bill.com has 69%of the revenue deriving from transaction fee and 30% from current subscription.
What did you think of DCBO earnings? I'm in at 2%. I haven't had a ton of time to review but they came in a little low (68% vs you were hoping for 75%) and the margins seem to be going the wrong way. Also, why don't they give guidance? seems quite odd for SaaS.
I thought it was a middling report especially given the small run rate. Remember, they had $1.1M in one-time revenue catch up last Q making true YoY 69%. Even backing that out only pushes this quarter's 6% QoQ to 10%. ARR growth declined QoQ from 12% to 10%. And all this happened during a quarter in which they added Zoom as a customer.
They only give total customers (6.1% QoQ vs 6.5% and 7.1% the last two quarters) with no larger cohorts. Even with ACV increasing slightly to $39K total with $58K for new customers, the slowdown of new logos entering on the front end is concerning.
One of the things that stuck in the back of my mind previously was just how small DCBO was given AMZN was using them for AWS certification. Now they've added ZM, yet are still muddling along with just OK numbers compared to what some of our known SaaS winners have done at the same stage. That suggests maybe this is just too niche or simply lacks real pricing power to do what we'd like it to do. They have traditionally not given a guide and didn't do so this Q. In the end, not enough present performance with too much flying blind on the future. I ended up selling at market open.
Thanks for your thoughts. I really dislike the lack of guidance and i agree the QoQ metrics were not impressive. I'm used to looking at RPO, billings, as well as guidance to read the tea leaves on next quarter. That's the beauty of SaaS. Not sure why they wouldn't guide. I'm out as well, I guess that's why it was a "try out" position. Toughest earnings season in a long time with LSPD, UPST, and DCBO disappointing. I'll have a lot of cash to make decisions with. I'm still in UPST at 10% but am still weighing if that's the right choice for me.
Good morning 🌞 Nov 4, LSPD is a 10% position in your portfolio. I am interested in reading about how you are going to address the 3rd quarter report and your conviction, if it’s changed or still intact. Wondering if this is one of those moments when an investor holds through the bumps/drops or determines it’s a fastly dynamic. I just read your post about fastly from last year, and your deliberation process regarding moving out of it and how you compared it to each one of your other positions. Excellent thinking process evidenced in that post. I only looked this morning and see LSPD is way down-around 17% pre-market. Looking forward to what you might write about LSPD and your portfolio. Best!
Thanks! I feel your pain but I’m way newer in it…🙁sold out when that short report came out and then decided to go back in. I’m going to have to apply large bandaid. 😱😳 still
Learning how to assess companies, when to move on, when to hold so these are meaningful teachable moments. This one seems to have too many challenges for a novice like me.
Thanks for your excellent information. I’m ready to learn more about investing. Found your name through Sauls and although truly a novice’s novice, enjoy reading in depth information like yours. Thanks for sharing your knowledge.
I’m sure I’ll be returning often to read your blog and I have to tell you the thing that I’ve already been very impressed with is that you give the charts with dates that you bought the stock. The beginning entry point seems to make a really big difference. I started reading Saul last October and I bought some but not all the stocks because I didn’t really know what I was doing. I bought net and it’s doing really well—my original price was $40 and I think that’s why I’m doing so well in there. I’m learning a lot from reading Sauls board and I also belong to another service//what I found the most helpful so far are these monthly reports-and posters updates. So much gratitude for the generosity of spirit that I am seeing amongst Saul members and in the other service that I belong to. 🙏
Great update. I completely agree with you on ROKU and I am curious to see the next ER. I exited all my CTV and ad-tech plays earlier this year. There is too much noise in that area. Plus, they all face difficult comps from last year. Oh, and happy Halloween.
Are you still fully off the Upstart train?
I have 1.5% taxable I'll hold and added back another 1.5% non-taxable between $237-$245. Not sure on the second lot but like it better than cash for now.
Stocknovice;
I follow your writings and portfolio updates on the MF and on Sauls board and appreciate all your insights in investing knowledge....Thank you for putting yourself out there and sharing you investing life with the public. I'm curious what your thoughts are with Bill.com and thier recent earnings. I'm going to initiate a position early this week and faily excited on their growth prospects.
20Q2 20Q3 20Q4 21Q1 21Q2 21Q3 21Q4 22Q1
Rev 39.1 41.2 42.1 46.2 54 59.7 78.3 116.4*
RevQoQ%. 5.4 2.2 9.7 16.9 10.6 31.2 48.7*
GM%Nongaap 78 78 78. 77 77 77 80 83*
SubscriptionRev YoY% 33 32 32 43*
TransactionRev YoY% 98 112 204 319*
*Includes the Divvy and Invoice2go acquisitions*
DBNRR is 124% up from 121% in 21Q4
They are guiding revenue for 131M (high end) for 22Q2 and usually beats guidance greater that 10% meaning a projected revenue of 144.1M+, meaning a 23.8% QoQ and 167% YoY....
Not familiar enough with them to have an opinion. They are on my list to take a look at but haven't done it yet. Two questions pop into my head:
1) What is the organic growth rate w/o acquisitions? Do you know?
2) Do they have any exposure to retail or hospitality suppliers that might affect revenue the next couple quarters? The supply chain thing seems to be creeping in a lot of places. Not sure if it applies here or not.
Bill.com seems to lay out thier quarterly earning with organic growth rates spelled out..
"Bill.com completed the acquisition of Invoice2go, a leading mobile-first accounts receivable (AR) software provider, on September 1, 2021. Bill.com’s reported financial results for the first quarter fiscal 2022 include the results of Invoice2go from that date, while prior periods presented do not. Organic results exclude the impact of Invoice2go and recently-acquired Divvy.”
-“Our organic core revenue growth increased 78% year-over-year in the first quarter,(and up from 73% previous quarter), and our spend management solution continued its robust growth trajectory,” said John Rettig, Bill.com CFO. “Our performance was driven by strong adoption and usage of our solutions and solid execution across our team. We are in a strong position to extend our leadership in serving the SMB market.”
While I did not really see anything pertaining to supply chain concept, Bill.com has 69%of the revenue deriving from transaction fee and 30% from current subscription.
What did you think of DCBO earnings? I'm in at 2%. I haven't had a ton of time to review but they came in a little low (68% vs you were hoping for 75%) and the margins seem to be going the wrong way. Also, why don't they give guidance? seems quite odd for SaaS.
Hi, Jeff.
I thought it was a middling report especially given the small run rate. Remember, they had $1.1M in one-time revenue catch up last Q making true YoY 69%. Even backing that out only pushes this quarter's 6% QoQ to 10%. ARR growth declined QoQ from 12% to 10%. And all this happened during a quarter in which they added Zoom as a customer.
They only give total customers (6.1% QoQ vs 6.5% and 7.1% the last two quarters) with no larger cohorts. Even with ACV increasing slightly to $39K total with $58K for new customers, the slowdown of new logos entering on the front end is concerning.
One of the things that stuck in the back of my mind previously was just how small DCBO was given AMZN was using them for AWS certification. Now they've added ZM, yet are still muddling along with just OK numbers compared to what some of our known SaaS winners have done at the same stage. That suggests maybe this is just too niche or simply lacks real pricing power to do what we'd like it to do. They have traditionally not given a guide and didn't do so this Q. In the end, not enough present performance with too much flying blind on the future. I ended up selling at market open.
Thanks for your thoughts. I really dislike the lack of guidance and i agree the QoQ metrics were not impressive. I'm used to looking at RPO, billings, as well as guidance to read the tea leaves on next quarter. That's the beauty of SaaS. Not sure why they wouldn't guide. I'm out as well, I guess that's why it was a "try out" position. Toughest earnings season in a long time with LSPD, UPST, and DCBO disappointing. I'll have a lot of cash to make decisions with. I'm still in UPST at 10% but am still weighing if that's the right choice for me.
What's your take on Upstart earnings? I thought they mostly knocked it out of the park. Market reaction seems a bit absurd.
Nevermind, I saw your write-up on the board. Thx for the feedback.
Good morning 🌞 Nov 4, LSPD is a 10% position in your portfolio. I am interested in reading about how you are going to address the 3rd quarter report and your conviction, if it’s changed or still intact. Wondering if this is one of those moments when an investor holds through the bumps/drops or determines it’s a fastly dynamic. I just read your post about fastly from last year, and your deliberation process regarding moving out of it and how you compared it to each one of your other positions. Excellent thinking process evidenced in that post. I only looked this morning and see LSPD is way down-around 17% pre-market. Looking forward to what you might write about LSPD and your portfolio. Best!
Well, I just ran LSPD through the same process you mentioned with FSLY. Let's just say it's now less than 10%...like the full 10% less. 😏
I decided to lick my wounds and live to fight another day with someone else.
Thanks! I feel your pain but I’m way newer in it…🙁sold out when that short report came out and then decided to go back in. I’m going to have to apply large bandaid. 😱😳 still
Learning how to assess companies, when to move on, when to hold so these are meaningful teachable moments. This one seems to have too many challenges for a novice like me.
Btw:did you buy MNDY 9/20/20 or 9/20/21? Thanks!
2021. Good catch, and I updated it on the website.
Thanks.
Thanks for your excellent information. I’m ready to learn more about investing. Found your name through Sauls and although truly a novice’s novice, enjoy reading in depth information like yours. Thanks for sharing your knowledge.
You're very welcome. Please feel free to leave any feedback you might have as you go.
Good luck.
I’m sure I’ll be returning often to read your blog and I have to tell you the thing that I’ve already been very impressed with is that you give the charts with dates that you bought the stock. The beginning entry point seems to make a really big difference. I started reading Saul last October and I bought some but not all the stocks because I didn’t really know what I was doing. I bought net and it’s doing really well—my original price was $40 and I think that’s why I’m doing so well in there. I’m learning a lot from reading Sauls board and I also belong to another service//what I found the most helpful so far are these monthly reports-and posters updates. So much gratitude for the generosity of spirit that I am seeing amongst Saul members and in the other service that I belong to. 🙏
Great update. I completely agree with you on ROKU and I am curious to see the next ER. I exited all my CTV and ad-tech plays earlier this year. There is too much noise in that area. Plus, they all face difficult comps from last year. Oh, and happy Halloween.